jd, you bring up an interesting point regarding the sales of service oriented business.
We are so focused on retail sales that we often forget about that huge service business like plumbers, electricians, auto repair shops, dentists, and restaurants.
I think you've got a great point in that people will tend to cut back or delay discretionary spending like those services they can perform themselves (well, except dentistry, which you can put off). Those things don't show up in the government numbers right away like retail sales and construction numbers.