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ari5000

09/08/07 12:10 PM

#80930 RE: echos #80925

I have written to jsmineset and various other bloggers and kept asking the same question:


what will happen if Ben makes few cuts and allows controlled deflation to occur?

The goldbug mentality is that the Fed and CBs will "flood" the globe with liqudity and create massive hyperinflation a la Weimar Republic and gold hits $2000/oz.

It requires the powers-that-be to act extremely stupid and assumes there are tons of complete morons willing to pay $2000/oz for gold despite the fact that the last time gold ran -- it lasted a very short time, then crashed and never recovered... even after almost 30 years.

There's a lot of assumptions about how the gold market works -- I don't understand it either -- but it probably requires a great deal of panic (that the global economy is being destroyed by hyperinflation ) and extreme greed (that others will blindly pile into a bubble).

I think it will be fascinating to watch but it's not a game I'm going to participate in.

I bet it will in fact run and I bet a good strategy would be to sell as soon as an article about gold appears in Newsweek or other pseudo-news magazine.