Replies to post #52036 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

JAV: I'm in it for the Ketamine angle; $1B in future peak sales is not out of the question. The Army is attending the Nov 8 NDA conf with the FDA.
Regardless, Dylo will justify the market cap alone. Easily, imo. As for the "approval already built into the price," perhaps for the UK approval, but not the rest...

And the current pps is still some 25% off the high; I would not see this as reflecting any future potential. Long-term holding...

[dewophile]

dr bio - jav

i went back to some analyst reports to clarify some dyloject numbers:

voltarol is doing 100-150M annually in the EU. estimates are that 25-50% is from the UK and germany alone (this is not only because these are the largest markets in the EU, but there are other injectable NSAIDS in other significant EU markets like italy and france)

voltarol is priced super cheap ($1.30 per 75mg vial). the company thinks dyloject can win reimbursement at a price as high as $8 a vial given the savings in infusion time, lack of phlebitis and costs associated with restarting IVs, etc. so their 75M estimate in UK and germany is based on capturing only a small fraction of the market..one would think a superior product on both safety and efficacy endpoints woudl capture even more than JAV's numbers, which are based on a 20-35% market share

another surprise could be markets like italy, where the main IV NSAID is ketorolac, whcih as we all know is associated with unacceptable GI side effects when given for longer duration..so there's a market where voltarol does zip, and where dyloject could see meaningful sales

I have no idea what sort of margins JAV will get on the product, but if they can price it closer to other branded NSAIDS in the EU it shoudl be substantial