IMHO, it needs to be remembered that there was value in SPZI prior to the appearance of "the deal".
In order for the value of what we have in front of us to collapse, we will need the vast majority (if not all) of the following things to show up as failures.
1. The TT deal. As this one has been PRed already, it is rather hard to see it evaporating.
2. The TD Ameritrade deal would have to vanish. Those in attendance at the shareholders meeting can dig out their old posts wherein they stated, if I recall correctly, that the deal with TD Ameritrade was talked about by company reps at that meeting.
3. The rumored deal with Man Financial would have to evaporate like the morning mists.
4. The rumored deal with OptionExpress would have to fail to materialize.
5. SWARM would need to be a failed quant.
6. The built-in ability to construct unique tradable custom derivatives that balance risk would need to fail to deliver.
7. The technology that allows you to point-n-click the pull down menues to generate scripts that can be compiled to C would need to be shown to be illusory.
8. The fact that this piece of middleware is claimed to be able to run at 10 million calculations a second would have to be show to be a lie.
9. The fact that the middleware is reported to be Open Source and is designed to run indepent of Microsoft products on Linux platforms, connecting to Open Source spreadsheets rather than just to Excel, would have to be shown to be fraudulent.
10. The fact that the middleware has can reportedly connect directly to individual spreadsheet cells would need to be shown to be untrue.
11. The fact that, if you use Excel, you could still conceivably develobe customized integrations with other database products using VBA within Excel would need to be a nonsense notion.
11. The patent applications SPZI has filed would need to be rejected by the patent office.
And so on.
In sum, there is a lot of value in place regardless of what the "big deal" ends up being revealed to be. Now, even with this being true, in pinkieland it is always wise to be honest about risk. It must be relaized that it may be that the "big deal" that generated the "quiet period" could fail to get negotiated to the liking of one or the other party's satisfaction. But even if the "big deal" does not happen, the above partial list of value elements needs to be held in memory. As a set of potentials, how much likelihood is there that they will all succomb to the fates and fail to be of value when all is said and done?
IMHO, whether or not the "big deal" gets done, and regardless of its nature, SPZI would need to have so many failures for it to succomb to the perfect storm that I do not see that this little pinkie has anything other than a bright future.
And, if anyone needs an explanation of the chart's boyancy, this set of likelihoods is the buttressing that is required. This little pinkie has inbuilt redundant system, as it were, contributing to its value equation.
Let me say that again for those intent of debunking what has us all excited:
This little pinkie has inbuilt redundant system, as it were, contributing to its value equation.
Put each in a bag, shake it up, reach in and retrieve a handful, and you still have value here. The "big deal" needs to be seen for what it is: insurance. If it comes to fruition, it will greatly enhance the company's value, but even without which, considerable value still remains.
Imperial Whazoo
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