Don't we all wish we had a crystal ball. If so, I suspect we wouldn't be here, but on a beautiful beach somewhere.
My take on BigD's post is that he has gotten fairly good information, but things don't always work out as planned, and things usually end up taking much longer than hoped.
Timing is important in a lot of the things we do. If we cross the street at the right time, it is easy because of little or no traffic. But at the wrong time, something comes out of nowhere and hits us.
I tend to view XKEM a little bit the same way. If folks can hang on until the right time (a much higher pps) they will do fine, as long as the company remains on track.