Rick, the problem with the nightmare scenario is that it is so unlikely at this point there just is no sense looking for it to happen.
a year or more ago, many of my posts were geared toward answering these fears. how often did the person I was talking too get swayed? Never. we just go back and forth and its goofy and a waste. The economy isn't going to slow down any time soon, its just getting up a good head of steam now.
look for the first sign of trouble to be a year away, but it will be a mirage too...by mid 2005, we will want to have very serious discussions about what 06-07 might bring