Looks like things heating up.Dean Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic?
By Accuweather.com Meteorologist Bob Tarr
A tropical wave that emerged from the West African coast on Friday continues to move in a westward direction across the Atlantic. The wave is centered near 12 north and 32 west and is moving at a brisk pace of 15 knots per hour. The system has developed some strong convection above a low-level circulation, but cooler waters as well as some westerly and northwesterly wind shear have prevented the system from becoming a tropical depression thus far. Over the next 24 hours, this disturbance will move into warmer water, and wind shear is expected to lessen, so a tropical depression may form by Tuesday.
Many of the long-range global models strengthen this system into a significant tropical storm, possibly a hurricane. A large high pressure over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is expected to prevent the system from curving off to the north and northeast; rather, it will track more westward toward the Lesser Antilles, arriving across these islands on Thursday night or Friday. After that, there is uncertainty as to where the storm will track, but anybody in the Caribbean, eastern Mexico, Gulf Coast and even Southeast coast should monitor the progress of this developing system.
Elsewhere, a pair of tropical waves are making unsettled weather across the northwest Caribbean. One wave is moving across the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, while the second is just west of Jamaica. These waves have dumped some heavy rain across Jamaica and Cuba and will continue to push west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours. The waves have been interacting with an upper-level low pressure area currently over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this low moves west toward Texas, it will leave less wind shear across the Gulf as these waves enter the region. The waves will likely merge into one wave, and from Tuesday into Wednesday, this system will need to be watched for tropical organization. At best, this system could reach tropical storm status before moving onto land across northeastern Mexico and South Texas. At the very least, these areas will just get some drenching rains by midweek.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a weak tropical wave is found near 42 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and has little thunderstorm activity associated with it. The developing system to its west will eventually overtake and absorb this wave later this week. Finally, another tropical wave can be found near 50 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots and is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
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