Repost from ico on FRPT
08-Aug-07 08:39 ET
Force Protection: MRAP field gets a little more crowded; lowering ests, but
risk/reward attractive- Thomas Weisel (18.09)
Thomas Weisel notes the GD Category II MRAP award for its RG-31 vehicle on Aug
7 after the close was a surprise, as reports from the field regarding the
vehicle have not been highly favorable. Firm says the award is clearly a
negative for FRPT, which now faces another Category II competitor ahead of
large MRAP orders in 2008. The firm believes the M.R.A.P acquisition strategy
has evolved as the DoD struggles under intense political pressure to get as
many vehicles fielded as soon as possible. This has resulted in the original
intent of having industry focus on two or three of the best designs
transforming into a free-for-all with orders seemingly going to all players
that passed testing at Aberdeen and can make a case for production capacity.
As a result of this new reality, the firm lowers Cougar market share
assumption for MRAP from 40% to 33% for 2007--2008. "
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