Replies to post #50929 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

[dr_praeses]

Monetary Policy :: Fed Funds Rate Predictions

Monetary Policy :: Fed Funds Rate Predictions

Options on federal funds futures can be analyzed to extract public expectations of future Fed actions. The charts below show what markets believe the most likely outcome of upcoming FOMC meetings will be. The charts are updated every business day and reflect the most recent data released by the Chicago Board of Trade. Probabilities can be estimated with various assumptions, which are described in detail here and in the readme worksheet of the downloadable Excel file. The assumptions used to construct each day's charts are indicated immediately below the pictures.







Technical note: September's chart and October's chart were both estimated with a futures restriction using the single meeting estimation technique. October fed funds futures and options settlement prices were used for the September chart and November futures and options were used for the October chart. Implied probabilities in August's chart after June 27 were estimated with a futures restriction using the single meeting estimation technique with August futures and options. Prior to June 28, implied probabilities in August's chart were estimated with two futures restrictions using the joint meeting estimation technique with both July and August fed funds futures and options. For more detail, see the explanation of assumptions page or see the readme worksheet of this excel file. Also included in the excel file are estimations using alternative assumptions and different sets of alternative target rates.

[dr_praeses]

ES Futures tonight 1405.25 -9.25 / NQ's down 12