Sharon...
"Looking at that part of the world starting from the east and going west presents the following observation. Pakistan, tribal area probably same as always. Afghanistan, prosperous and on Iran’s eastern border. Iran is politically vulnerable. Iraq is politically stable and prosperous. Syria, citizens see advantages that Iraqi citizens now have, they want, and politically unstable. Lebanon should be stabilized and Hezbollah a legitimate political force or will have been defeated as Syria wouldn’t be able to provide support."
Just a quick response to the above from my personal and (hopefully) pragmatic point of view. I think that Pakistan remaining the same is pretty much the best we can hope for over the foreseeable future. It is a government under siege, and should the present government be overthrown in favor of a radical Islamic regime, things in that part of the world would quickly become infinite worse, with a terrorist style government in control of functioning nuclear weapons.
I hope you are right about Afghanistan's prospects, but I tend to doubt it. They have no economic base (other than heroin) and little political unity or history to build on. I suspect that it will continue to be under siege also, with the radical Islamic elements a rather permanent problem.
I do agree that Iran is a viable candidate for an internally led revolution and overthrow of the current regime, but it will require the US and others to stand firm on increasingly strong sanctions, plus assistance to the leadership of those who want a new government. I am not sure we (or our international partners in the matter) have the resolve to do what is necessary if past history is any indication. It seems at least a 50/50 proposition that either the US or Israel (or both) will be forced to strike their nuclear facilities to prevent them from gaining nuclear capability, and the resulting "fallout" (pardon the pun) of a military strike are both unknown and unknowable.
Syria is a pawn for Iran in fomenting terrorism in the middle east and especially in Iraq, but its participation in such ventures could be relatively easily neutralized if we have the willingness to do what is necessary. A short series of military strikes against its military and perhaps some infrastructure would almost certainly convince Syria to pursue a more neutral policy in the area and (for the most part) refrain from assisting the rebels in Iraq. The question is whether or not we have the resolve to do what is necessary to be done.
In Iraq, I hope you are correct, but I tend to believe that the odds of Iraq becoming an oasis in the middle eastern desert are not very good. Like Afghanistan (more so, really), the Iraqi people have little to unite them and much to keep them at each other's throat, with tribal hatreds more potent than any desire to form a unified nation. In my mind, a three separate nation approach is probably the only one that has any hope of success, with some kind of confederacy of the three a possibility.
The Israeli / palestinian problem is unsolvable as long as Israel remains a nation, for the elimination of Israel is the only acceptable outcome that will satisfy its arab neighbors. Understanding that fact is the "sine qua non" of any hope of achieving even a modicum of "peace" in the area, but true peace is not possible in this era.
Until Iran and Syria are dealt with, Lebanon will continue to be in upheaval. I see little prospects for the Lebanese military to put down the Islamic terrorists that foment the problems there both against Lebanon and against Israel, and the UN is (as always) just a farce.
Finally, you did not mention Saudi Arabia, but somehow we have to convince that nation to cease its tolerance for and support of radical Islam. We must have the resolve to be tougher with Saudi Arabia on these fronts for there to be any hope for even a semblance of "peace" in the area.
As always, though, just my opinion.
I do want to express my appreciation for your posts here. Please continue to present your opinions on all those problems that afflict our nation, for a more conservative and rational viewpoint is often missing on these boards. My thanks and appreciation also goes to Razor for his willingness to call a spade a spade, and to both you and aim higher for his/her defense of common sense and a more conservative rationale of things without all the personal garbage that so infects this board. There are a few others also who do these things, but the names excape me at the moment, but my thanks to them nonetheless.
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