Klaus,
Economically reasonable without any doubt and completely acceptable if it is meant as an interim-strategy: Even if they allow ASP to decline some 20% this year, they can make a ton of money as long as they can make the stuff 25% cheaper due to 300mm/90nm economies.
I don't think it is economically reasonable, and Intel will try to avoid something like this to happen.
The reason it does not work is that the number of Intel shares will not go down 20%. Intel will do all that is possible to prevent declines in ASPs and decline in revenue.
Besides, it is a good year, and Intel is so far ahead in the OEM and business penetration, that even a weak year product-wise will not reverse things quickly. Just recall the last year of Piii and first year of P4.
As far as 300/90nm economies, Intel margins on processors were probably somewhere in 80% range even before 90nm and 300mm.
Joe
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