Replies to post #4028 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DewDiligence]

Possible / Probable News Flow
(supplement to #msg-20965737):

1. A partnership for ATryn in Japan. Japan has substantial sales of plasma-derived antithrombin, including an approved indication for DIC/sepsis. These plasma-derived sales represent low-hanging fruit for eventual conversion to ATryn. At least one Japanese clinical study (by a GTC partner) will be needed to obtain marketing approval.

2. A new supply deal similar to the ones with Merrimack and PharmAthene. The effect of such an announcement on the stock price could be large, depending of course on the partner and the partnered drug.

3. A development partner for the CD137 program. This would be especially significant because CD137 is the most advanced internal program that is not based on a plasma protein.

4. Something out of the blue. A major partnership with a Big Pharma? A buyout? Who knows. With a company such as GTC that has many different possibilities, it’s not unreasonable to expect the unexpected.

[DewDiligence]

Possible / Probable News Flow
(supplement to #msg-20965737):

1. A partnership for ATryn in the US. This is apt to be the most consequential news item of the next 12 months. It could come at any time (#msg-21999558).

2. A partnership for ATryn in Japan. Japan has substantial sales of plasma-derived antithrombin, including an approved indication for DIC/sepsis. These plasma-derived sales represent low-hanging fruit for eventual conversion to ATryn. At least one Japanese clinical study (by a GTC partner) will be needed to obtain marketing approval.

3. A new supply deal similar to the one with Merrimack. The effect of such an announcement on the stock price could be large, depending of course on the partner and the partnered drug.

4. A development partner for the CD137 program. This would be significant because CD137 is the most advanced internal program that is not based on a plasma protein.

5. Something out of the blue. With a company such as GTC that has so many possibilities, it’s not unreasonable to expect the unexpected.