I suspect you sold near the bottom
:p
will add any weakness from here on (did add some before from 0,70-74) italy update will come
and their trials do not need to be very large due to the orphan status of the illnesses
ROP trials are funded by others atm, but could add to the companies attraction
I expect some external financing for the full II trials as well, and the trials will be relatively small due to the patient population. (if you want an example of how small it COULD be , take a look at your other promoted investment.. talk about eu approval on 15 or so patients? :p )
NIH grant to insm was for over multiple years as well.
I very much love the multiple uses for iplex, it lowers the risk for the pipeline alot. The drug is safe to use and approved production, efficacy has to be shown offcourse.
IIa although small do give an insight there, chances of iplex succeeding for those indications is still very likely.
Why such a strong possibility? Because iplex is not a cure as such, but what it does do is promote growth, ( bone/tissues/neurological).
Unless one of those illnesses has a broken mechanism than blocks iplex, it will induce growth in them as well.
And exactly that growth is what will improve quality of life and extend survival for those patient populations.
After final phase II studies i do expect to see an uptake in offlabel sales, esp since hars etc are illnesses that wreck the body. Patients will be aware.
Some like you tout the negativities of the settlement, fact was the jury floored the company, nothing to do with management. The prior art item was very much true and verifiable.
And insm still could barter its 50% profits, that would mean they would have had an opt-in allready, with a declined opt-in it would be a 4% royalty. But i expect chances of an opt-in quite high.. esp since ipsen would bankroll trca if they saw value. ANd i doubt insm will need to find a sugardaddy to get to phase III enabling, esp seeing they have some revenue form italy as well now.
Could it have been better? Sure, but given the circumstances and the possible 9mln penalty, i still feel that given the jury verdict they made a good deal. The mere fact the dna was willing to make a deal as well.. and even negotiated a development council and opt-in rights shows to me that they see value as well. They would have tried to burry insm otherwise.
ANy biologics item will make insm even more interesting again for a possible bigger partner if that partner was previously looking at insm for iplex alone.
I dont think we will see an iplex partner for hars/mmd other thna the opt-in, i expect a biologics partner there for some marketing/financing.. if this will be a big or small revenue stream i do not feel like debating now since we now too little there... BUT even a small revenue stream would make no need for more financing by mid/late 2008 a lot more likely.
If the italian program shows a promise, in that case cephalon would probably want first rights of negotiation. Insm would need to deal there due to patents of use on IGF1 and ALS. Big market though, so that would not be negative at all for the company. I expect some form of first right the negotiate allready in place due to the agreement with cepahlon for the italian expanded access program.
As for the civility: as stated before i do not mind scepticism or negativitiy. I do very much dislike dishonesty and deceit.
Willfull distorting of facts or intentionl omissions for example, yahoo and Iv seem to have some posting with very persistent attitudes in such dealings.
I also do not mind if people short or trade, i do not condone the hypocrisie when people paint their msges when they want to buy back lower or cover their shares later on.
It suits you that you indeed are honest about selling the larger part of your position.
I honestly see the risk for insm as being substantial, its not an established company yet... but a lot lower than prior to the trial and IIa results. And the possible rewards outweigh the risks a by a multiple here.
Insm does represent value and its still a takeover candidate if its data proves to be promising enough.
Guidelines on opt-in and licensed dna patent portfolio etc give a clear picture now on those items.
Insider buys shows management cares (check your other company for example.. 1000 insider buy there?), and management is approachable for questions.
As for potential:
current ALS reimbursement is about 144.000 per year.
this could be an interesting revenue for the short term for the company, especially seeing their lowered cash burn.
Why is the company still so very interesting ?
HARS for example:
80.000 patients in US, 80.000 in EU
lets take a market penetration of 25% and cost of drug of about 60.000$ (expect dosage to be closer to the als dosage, but lets keep conservative)
That would be over a billion for that indication with those numbers...
Still plenty other surprised that could come out, BP3 for example still seems to be very beneficial as a combination added to herceptin.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
