Replies to post #975 on Justa's Dive Bar

[chainik]

I suppose one can make a bearish argument based on AFBIX chart, but it is not that easy :)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AFBIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33229160363

<Very hard to make a bullish case using fundamentals of any kind>

Hussman has been making a bearish case based on fundamentals for the last 4 years. Fundamentally he is probably right, but in terms of returns, it is as pathetic as it gets.

RE fundamentals - what bothers me is optimism as we enter the earnings season. Very different from last earning season. Even decent earnings reports might be sold.

[ItsAllCyclical]

>> Most bulls base their bullishness only on technical analysis, seasonal analysis, and charts <<

Don't watch CNBC much, but anytime I tune in and watch a bulls speak it's always valuations relative to low interest rates FWIW. Most of the bulls say the current PE is around 15-16 on the S&P which is of course debatable, but that's the argument.

I'm more in the bearish camp myself and feel something has to give, but I've been thinking that for a while now. Thankfully I wasn't bold enough to go heavily short, just long gold from time to time. Of course that's been pretty boring of late.

Reading your credit spread posts w/interest and tend to agree. Watching other factors such as the Yen, Copper and technical factors. My basic thesis is that things revert to the norm and the excessive debt levels and spending must revert hence my continued bearishness for sometime now.

[chainik]

Regarding credit defaults:

http://www.dailywealth.com/index.asp