Replies to post #3989 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DewDiligence]

>When do the added production costs (LEO EU supply) kick in and do we expect a ramping up in demand over time or flat?<

The sales will undoubtedly be on a ramp rather than flat because not all EU countries will come on line at the same time.

For GTC’s income-statement accounting, the COGS and the revenues from Leo ought to be relatively well matched in time because GTC receives the manufacturing transfer fee from Leo upon shipment. The royalty portion of GTC’s revenue from Leo is probably timed to coincide with end-user sales, but I doubt this will make much difference from a practical standpoint. In any case, these details will presumably be disclosed on the 2Q07 CC in August.

>As to valuation, I guess the company would be worth roughly 50M-100M based on Atryn EU sales exclusively which is not far off today's valuation. It is strange that "the rest" is almost completely discounted by the street.<

GTC has always made it clear that the HD indication for Atryn in the EU was pursued for one reason only: a proof of concept for the production platform. Some investors evidently haven’t yet gotten the message that there is more to the company than that.