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Replies to #48686 on Biotech Values
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DewDiligence

06/19/07 8:59 AM

#48691 RE: DewDiligence #48686

In the ALTH trial, Cox regression worsened the result: the raw HR was 0.87 and the Cox-adjusted HR was 0.93.
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quantumdot

06/19/07 9:28 AM

#48694 RE: DewDiligence #48686

ALTH - fair enough to take a swipe at ALTH, the trial failed. The interesting thing is that there is a lot of historical studies in this population with WBRT alone and overall survival has typically been in the 4-5 month range. The study was powered to see a 40% increase in survival over WBRT alone. In their previous Ph III I think the control arm averaged 5.6 months overall survival (which itself was near the top of the historic range).

What killed Allos in this second Ph III seems to be the significant improvement in SOC. Maybe the targeted radiation treatment is so much better now (?), but either way, if the control arm had shown overall survival at the historic norm or close to their earlier trials then the 8.5 month survival on the treatment arm would have been highly significant.

The other interesting thing is how the share price is holding up pre-market. It is down a dime from yesterdays close! For the failure of the lead program this is somewhat baffling. Let's see what the regular session brings.