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Not_Bill_Oneil

06/18/07 12:25 PM

#272 RE: melpomene #270

Yes, it hit it briefly...

but the volume wasn't there (but, give it some time). Besides volume, it also depends on the news out, the market, related plays (esp in the sector), the chart (what type of setup, is it a good setup or are there problems, etc.), options activity and/or expiry, even time of day. All things that are easier to observe with time and experience, and then you can get a better "feel" of what it's doing and if the odds are if it will breakout and run.

Maybe even more important than all of that, is your actual understanding of how a particular issue trades. Afterall, it's not the issue that is trading, it's certain people, and they have likely been trading it awhile. The best way I find to get an understanding of how it (these people) trades is to buy a little before you plan to jump in (after doing all your DD and determining an issue is one you are interested in buying).

Pilot buys are a good way to get this understanding and I'll often do a lot of smaller buys before loading up on a couple of final positions. Because once your money is on the line, you will follow it closer. I still however, just have to watch not getting too many to follow.

Regarding NYX, even with expiry last week, I was still looking for it to hold at least 80.5 into the close. It wasn't happening so I sold most of my common on Friday, but am keeping my long-dated calls. For me, that money had to be re-allocated as I often look at time stops as well as price stops.

This market is strong, and the smaller-market cap and smaller float issues I've mentioned as potential growth are much more risky to trade, but in a market like we're in and with some practice and experience, you can often do better with these. But, they need to be traded with strict rules and stops, otherwise you may just be better staying with something larger and waiting, like NYX.

GL, I'll be checking in from time to time.