Replies to post #48465 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

IDIX: read for yourself:

FBR cut their tgt to $6 from $7 on IDIX based on new NM283 data from the ribavirin-interaction Phase II study. Chief among their concerns is the fact that the co may not have the dose yet. IDIX said that it needs to run another Phase II trial testing a higher dose. Therefore, the safety concerns cannot be ruled out since the higher dose will likely have a higher incidence of safety events. Firm says this news today, rather than being a low-bar, confirmatory, neutral event, is looking like a negative, since it pushes out the launch of the drug and lowers peak sales.

"We expect timelines to be pushed back by at least one year and a Phase 3 trial [will] begin in the second half of 2008," says Jason Kolbert, of Susquehanna, in a report to clients. He doesn't own shares. His firm says it seeks to do business with companies mentioned in research reports.

Susquehanna: Kolbert cut his rating to neutral from positive, saying that he had been expecting the results to be enough to advance to Phase 3. Idenix will be at a disadvantage to competitors, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and ViroPharma, which are expected to begin Phase 3 testing later this year on their hepatitis C compounds, Kolbert says.

Mark Schoenebaum of Bear Stearns lowered his rating to peer perform from outperform, telling clients that his prediction of a 2009 launch will be delayed by at least six months. He's concerned about the drug's gastrointestinal side effects and wants to see better efficacy data.

Idenix said it met the primary goal of showing no interactions between its drug and ribavirin among patients with a certain type of hepatitis C. Among 39 patients receiving a triple-drug combination, 72.2% achieved a significant reduction in the virus compared with 61.5% among 39 patients receiving the dual-drug standard of care. However, three patients quit the Idenix-group test due to side effects.

The drop-outs prompted the Bear Stearns and Susquehanna Financial analysts to remark that the comparison between the Idenix group and the standard-of-care groups is weaker than the official numbers in the clinical trial.

EDIT: go seek: "all considered today's news was positive for IDIX"
Based on the pps, I'd have to disagree.