Replies to post #2773 on Value Microcaps Junior Miners

[drtkw]

Those prices would also take nickel pig iron out of the picture as well.

[curlews]

Nickel forecast history. Here's a mention of forecasts from Alan Heap, one of those two Citigroup experts, from back in September 2005:

Nickel prices are going to slide though 2007, suggest Jim Lennon at Macquarie Bank, Alan Heap at Citigroup and Fraser Phillips at RBC Capital Markets—because of expanded supply ahead. Nickel prices are projected to average $7/lb this year. Lennon sees tags sliding to $6.50/lb in 2006 and $5.75 in 2007. A more-bearish Heap sees nickel averaging $5 next year and $4 in 2007. While Phillips forecasts $7 in 2006, he sees $6 in 2007.
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I'm not blaming him for being wrong in 2005, but I think it provides a good reason to be quite skeptical of his forecasts for 2008 and 2009, since he has had to raise his 2007 estimate from $4 to $18 over a period of 21 months. That's a very foggy crystal ball.

[curlews]

Nickel forecast history. Here's a mention of forecasts from Alan Heap, one of those two Citigroup experts, from back in September 2005:

Nickel prices are going to slide though 2007, suggest Jim Lennon at Macquarie Bank, Alan Heap at Citigroup and Fraser Phillips at RBC Capital Markets—because of expanded supply ahead. Nickel prices are projected to average $7/lb this year. Lennon sees tags sliding to $6.50/lb in 2006 and $5.75 in 2007. A more-bearish Heap sees nickel averaging $5 next year and $4 in 2007. While Phillips forecasts $7 in 2006, he sees $6 in 2007.
------------------------
I'm not blaming him for being wrong in 2005, but I think it provides a good reason to be quite skeptical of his forecasts for 2008 and 2009, since he has had to raise his 2007 estimate from $4 to $18 ($20+$16) over a period of 21 months. That's a very foggy crystal ball.