Replies to post #270719 on Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

[follylama]

I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, that TB is the leading cause of death worldwide from infectious disease, and the 6th leading cause of death in general. As with other pathogens, certain stains of TB are becoming multi-drug resistant. Tho many carry the TB bacteria, one is only contageous when symptomatic. If I'm understanding media reports (hysteria) correctly, the patient had tested positive for a multi-drug resistant strain of TB, but was asymptomatic and therefore not considered contageous.

In the US, the incidence of TB infection and active TB has risen over the last several years with the flow of 3rd world immigrants across our borders. But one thing is for sure, if contageous, I can assure you, the man would be hospitalized -- in isolation, with resp. precautions and in a neg. pressure room. He would not be doing tabloid news interviews...

[mlsoft]

seabass...

My terminology was probably incorrect, but what I was referring to is the fact that starting with just a few cases, AIDS has now infected millions of folks worldwide in a relatively short period of time. TB pales next to that. There is a difference in theoretical potential to infect and actual proclivity to infect.

mlsoft

[osprey]

>>>When you think about it, AIDS is a far deadlier disease than TB and far more easily contagious to others, but you never hear of anyone being quarantined for AIDS.<<<

Seabass is correct. Quarantine for HIV would be pointless and impractical. It is illegal in most states for someone HIV+ to expose HIV- people to the virus without informing them first. Doesn't stop them of course, but occasionally people get caught and sent to jail.

The fatality rate for XDR TB isn't too clear. In the US, the cure rate with heroic treatment is 30%. Some of the remaining 70% will control the disease immunologically. A fatality rate of 30-50% is as good a guess as any. Not great odds.

In the third world where this new disease is more common, fatality rates are much higher. The CDC is spooked by this one. TB is in the top three single disease agent killers worldwide. If XDR TB gets a foothold here, we are back to the era of cross your fingers and hope they live and watch them die.

Newsweek:
What are a person’s chances of surviving XDR-TB?
For someone with XRD-TB, the full-blown disease, the fatality rate is very high as there is very little to be done about it. It’s potentially untreatable and a great public health concern. There are an estimated 450,000 cases per year of MDR-TB with a fatality rate of 67 percent. This resembles the situation before there were any drugs for TB, leading up to 1950 when there was a 50 percent fatality rate. This is made even worse by the fact that so many people with MDR-TB are also HIV-positive, making it even more lethal. XDR-TB is the worst of all, it’s already been reported in 17 countries and is estimated to be 10 percent of all MDR cases. This means there are 45,000 people with XDR-TB worldwide. The fatality rate isn’t exactly clear yet, but the Lancet reported that in a South African population of 53 people with XDR-TB, 52 died. The median survival time after diagnosis was 16 days.