Replies to post #21513 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[yourbankruptcy]

Semi, I think noone should be long-term investor in anything. Good investor should take money and run when time comes. The AMD-Intel competition is naturally cyclical, so AMD will prevail from time to time and frirt with bankruptcy in other times.

Noone should be 100% long Intel either. Current price is only 40% of 2000 max. God investor was out at $70 and in at $20.

When this semiconductor cycle ends (in 2005?) we all should sell both AMD and Intel and repay the mortgage.

[j3pflynn]

Semi, I've always considered Intel to be a fierce competitor, but if that kind of smugness is pervasive at Intel, I think AMD is going to do very well.
Paul

[Jules2]

Posted by: SemiconEng
In reply to: yourbankruptcy who wrote msg# 21500 Date:12/26/2003 12:54:17 AM
Post #of 21525


Fortunately for AMD they don't need to jump above the head anymore. The manufacturing process they have now plus exceptional Opteron design, which is already on sale, is perfectly enough to show a very decent profit in 2004.


Sure, all that is fine, if apparently what you're looking at is short term, 2004. What happens after that? An interesting question, that a Long Term Investor, looking at the bigger picture, might ask themself is...... What's going to happen after that, if AMD, Oooopppssss, sorry, I meant IBM, can't develop a Fully Depleated SOI Process in a Timely, Cost Effective manner? Or if AMD can't develop a True 64 bit Chip? The X86 Cross License with intel doesn't include IA-64 baby, and IMO, X86-64 or for that matter INTC64 (if it exists), is going to run out of steam, sooner, rather than later, assuming of course that Opteron doesn't cook itself first, trying to ramp the speeds on that Partially Depleated SOI Process. But hey, I guess from your point of view, you're correct, things look pretty good for AMD......... For 2004.

Semi, You forgot to mention the possibility of a pole shift, how about those Alien guy's Elmer talkes about; the possibility's are endless.

I'm only posting in the spirit of completeness!

Jules