Replies to post #205 on Alternative Energy (fka AENS)

[coin_in_fountain]

To answer your question in an indirect way, I think I heard somewhere that they could sell DDG's for rough 20% of the price of the original corn feedstock. There is also some talk that sometime in the distant future the corn stalks could also be recycled using celulostic techniques. (I guess they don't yet have the right enzyme to do that, or some technical problem like that.)

At this point I'm not worried about the prices of the finished product. That's too far off to predict, with too many variables involved - plant costs, feedstock price, gasoline price, etc. I think as long as there are problems in the middle east, Venezuela, etc., there will be a demand for ethanol, and it will be considerably less expensive than gas.

At this point there is still considerable risk in the stock, though I don't see how you could be asking much more of the present management. They look dead serious about making this happen, and they have the experience to back them up.

I do have a couple fears. The coal burning idea to reduce production costs may be difficult. It is very unfashionable these days to burn coal, though several ethanol plants are starting to do it. They may eventually have to switch to Evergreen's refined coal (called K-fuel, ticker EEE), which costs more money, but pollutes less. Anyway, I sure will rest much easier when they get the required air permits to burn coal.

I also would like to hear how those bond sales are coming along, and if they got the price they were expecting. I HATE to see this stock diluted anymore than necessary.

I am curious as to why some of these ethanol plants by other companies are not going forward. I'm hearing stories about financing problems, so it looks like if we can get past the permitting and finance humps, we're half way home.