Replies to post #47185 on Biotech Values

[mouton29]

If you think it is worth $30 with approval, and that there is 2/3rd chance of 9902B being successful, then is $7 so crazy? I understand, there will be dilutive financing if interim look is unsuccessful, but, there is also the non-zero chance that the interim peek will be stat sig. The question then becomes, what are the appropriate discount factors for all the delays and risks.

[medchal]

If you read the I-V board, you will see that there is a very large group of very delusional people who are buying this stock and egging on others to do the same. I don't think this is off-topic to a discussion of this stock, either. (According to "Adam Smith" of The Money Game fame, Mr. Johnson commented that times of great crusades are not times of very great reality, and these people are on a crusade.) There is no accounting for the current stock price without reckoning with a whole lot of people with very unrealistic expectations. As long as they're willing to throw more money at DNDN, why shouldn't the market makers accommodate them while letting the price float up?

I own a handful of $10 puts expiring in August, and I'm certainly not selling them at this price level, even though they are worth several times what I paid for them.

Just my opinion, of course.

[lumpy9200]

Who is buying DNDN at over $7???

The stock traded under 5 all winter, add in the certain dillution comming up and it will be under $4 within months.

Are people really paying a 100% premium on the chance of some Senator getting riled about the FDA, or is this just a distorted market due to puts and shorts being settled?

With almost any type of partnership deal, the stock should move higher than the current $7.00. For the record, I'm not one who expects Pfizer or some other big pharma to fork over a bazillion dollars, but a deal could easily move the stock to $10 or higher. With no certain idea of what's in the CR, and no idea what type of talks (if any) Gold is having with potential partners, buying puts seems just as risky as going long.

JMHO.

Best,
Geoff