kpf, Keith, on those 'crow' examples -
But they could always close down JV1s 0,35µm production, take charges for it, tool JV3s extension-building as planned but not executed yet and issue another Convertible Senior Note for it. And yes, everything already in 10-Q. Possible discontinuation of manufacturing facilities and financing transactions covered in save haven statements, JV3 expansion explicitely noted. Just one of dozens of possibilities.
Historically, when companies close old facilities and take a charge, it has a positive effect on the stock price because operating costs are going down in future quarters. The one exception to this rule is when a company closes a factory because of declining sales, that would be bad. However, since AMD is expanding flash production at Fab 25, any such factory closings would be a positive.
They just announced the financing package for the new Dresden fab, so it certainly would surprise everyone for another convertible note to be announced so soon. It would certainly surprise me.
These are the risks for the stock which could come to pass in January:
1. Q4 not as good as expected. This would go counter to lots of evidence, so I don't expect this.
2. Softer projected demand industrywide for Q1 and Q2. This is a real possibility, there are significant unknowns and dangers in the economy right now. I am convinced that Q4 is profitable, not so sure about Q1 and Q2. I think this is the factor pushing down on tech prices across the board right now - weak anticipated demand over the next couple of quarters.
3. The big enchilada: A significant last minute problem with 90nm. That would skewer the stock price!
Could be it was the announced date for earnings reporting of Q4 results differing from usual pattern which caused recent negative sentiment of the street about AMD, as it probably nourishes fears of some crow to come on the table just before the strikes of exchanged ESOs will be fixed end of January.
I don't think that AMD is timing any news to impact employee stock options. That would attract the wrong type of attention, and sometimes people go to jail for that. It is a good way to cripple a good company. Look for the standard above-the-table explanations rather than the illegal. The company has a legal obligation to disclose material information in a timely manner relative to when it becomes known internally, they won't withhold and time information to impact an ESO exchange.
The reason for doing the ESO exchange at the end of January is because it allows for any January news, particulary Q4 and FY2003 information to be absorbed by the market, and that date is early enough in Q1 so that there is insufficient information about Q1 (and FY2004) performance to impact individual employee decisions. That dates reinforces that AMD is being very careful with this program.
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