Go Seek
I appreciate your efforts to keep the readers of this board informed.
I can think of a lot of reasons to close out short positions. IDIX is being valued as if NM283 has no future application. The June top line data could show potential as part of a triple therapy or a testing program with a protease inhibitor combination could be announced. Another milestone payment from NVS would further enhance the valuation. Finally, Sebivo has started launching in markets in Europe and Asia and upside traction could jump start IDIX. I realize NVS will benifit from many of the new market launches but milestone payments and royalties will become significant. It will also help to draw attention to the need for more testing of the immigrant population in the US.
As painful as it is to add to my worst holding, I've done so in the last couple days. I think the worse case is a test of $6 but the upside could be easily take it into the low teens in less than a year. Valuation on the forward earnings potential of Tazeka/Sebivo alone is sufficient to justify the current share price. However, it will likely be several more quarters before this becomes evident. The expansion of the HBV market will also be more apparent in the comming quarters.
Once again, I feel like I'm way to early into IDIX but the long term prospects have not diminished to the extent that it has been discounted by Wall Street. A catalyst is really necessary to jump start things.
As I've indicated before, I worry a little about the idea of running tests to produce head to head tests v. Barraclude. It seems that being one of the best products in an expanding market is an ok position. I'm not sure if the head to head is worth the risk. I'm interested in your opinion on this point.
Thanks Again
FL
Good Luck
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