market size
I can't give you hard figures either except to say BOTH markets are huge. Of the fibroid market, proellex would command a sizable slice..namely those whose primary complaint is bleeding (which is by far the most common symptom). for those whose primary symptom is pressure, usage would depend on ability of the drug to shrink fibroids. another use would be to build hematocrit before surgeries associated with blood loss..remember many of these patients are anemic, and lurpon has a 3 month indicatin for fibroids pre-op..the benefit is largely to increase hematocrit and not so much to shrink the fibroid (soem argue prior to myomectomy lupron might even interrupt the planes of the fibroids and make dissection more difficult, and the modest shrinkage rarely can change the surgical approach)
endometriosis on the other hand will be absolutely dominated by proellex, and last i heard there were 5 million patients in north america with symptomatic endometriosis..given the high penetrance that in fact could be the bigger of the two commercial opportunities if I were to take a guess
my thinking is along the lines of xry's..if it makes it through it is a homerun..personally I'm not so focused on whether it clears the fence by a lot or a little, although those details will surely be raised when podolski is in end stage negotiations to determine if it is a grand slam or what, but I'd like to see the ball clear the fence first..it clearly will on efficacy, and as I have stated in prior posts, I think there is a good risk management strategy in place with the design of the ph 3 to minimize safety risk...I'd almost go out on a limb and say if biopsy data comes back clean in a month or so then even the safety risk starts to approach 0
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