Mpower,
hey, i'd like to see a bid for 88/sh right now, don't get me wrong, but the CEO has told me, and a number of other people on occasion, that he sees the vaue of this north of a Billion depending on the market conditions (my add) and these things take time to work through. It's not a short term process to get PII study results, write them up, tabulate safety data at one place, put the info away for a month, re-tabulate at another site with other reviewers, then write up the full results. Meet with FDA on other drug regarding endpoints, after fully preparing for that meeting and the Q&A involved with that. Design PIII trial for endo drug. Design concurrent study for endo drug. Design PIII drug for uterine fibroid drug, and then the concurrent. Tabulate interim results, report. Tabulate end results and writeup, and report. File NDA. For both drugs.
That's at least 2 yrs worht of work and as that process progresses, getting closer to revenue stream the more value is added.
Remember they only have <10 employees and they outsource all of their clinical work.
Heck I'd like to see a 1.2B buyout offer but no one's probably going to do tha. Occasionally you'll see a 100% buyout premium but JP would't sell the company for 12.3M * $26 and i (for one) would not support that even if he did.
Selling an extremely underpriced asset is not prudent, you wait until the market prices it more towrds full value or even better overvalues it. JP will grid this one out, even going back to the market for more cash if need be (wont need to IMO) to get the process further along.
Don't forget that a revenue producing drug is worth about 4-8 times sales. If he has to partner for a % (say 30%) of rev (his stated intent is to sell company within 1-2 yrs) at 2B +350M androxal, in 4 yrs I'm ok with that, given that discounting that back still gives a price of about $150 per share...
patience. the bidding war will start. just not right away, I don't think.
I'd take a $65 offer VERY seriously though in case solvay and bayer are looking at this!
Peace
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
