Boosher board members/lurkers/posters:
I just want to clear one thing up real quick. Technical analysis, for me, doesn't give good predictive value at every moment. The predictive value is higher and lower, depending on what stage a stock is in. A high predictive value probably only occurs 2-5 times on most stocks a year. A medium predictive value is present probably 30% of the time. Most of the time, there is very little predictive value of a stock based on TA. This is just my experience. The goal then is to find stocks that fall into that highly predictive area. Anything outsie of that becomes more and more of a guess. You try and use money management to best capture a gain, or ditch a loser within charting scenarios that offer that high predictive value.
The reason I am stating this again, and now, is because I just want you to know that if you throw a stock at me, most of the time it doesn't fall into the pattern I like for predictive value, so I'm using TA to maybe increase my chances of being right, but it is still a major guess.
NTAH~this one falls into a low-medium predictive value(when it was basing in the .70's). After it broke below .70 from a base, and then rose above the resistance around .76, it had a decent shot at making you some money. Because it is a BOTTOM play, it isn't nearly as reliable, and the reward possibilities are much more difficult to get a grasp on.
The best way to play the market, IMO is to find a system to find highly predictive chart patterns, and based on how predictive they are, you increase or decrease your portfolio allocation to them. Once in them, you must know where you would sell it, and what your goal is with profiting from it. The profit goal system is usually best maximized with an incremental release. You let x%(10-20% of position) at one point, then 10-20% more at a higher level, and then you move up a trailing stop to capture the gain whenever it turns down and takes you out. Where to move that trailing stop is tricky, but if you have any grasp of TA, you'll have a good idea where to put it.
Once a stock is up like NTAH, there is no good buy. You hope that you bought the break above .77ish, you let 20-40% of the position go here, and then you put a trailing stop for rest of position at about 1, and move it up every 3 or 4 days until it stops you out. That could take months and be 100% higher, or it could be hit tomorrow.
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