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3xBuBu

04/24/07 6:55 PM

#4170 RE: 3xBuBu #4162

Market Update 070424
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html


4:20 pm : The major averages finished mixed Tuesday as participants juggled encouraging developments in tech, plunging oil prices and more evidence that it may take longer than anticipated for the housing correction to subside.

With Technology (+0.8%) expected to be a significant contributor to earnings growth on the S&P 500 this year, a solid Q1 report and upbeat Q2 guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 34.92 +2.51) last night renewed confidence about the tech sector's growth prospects. Altera (ALTR 22.97 +1.65) also soared more than 7% after beating analysts' expectations and saying it sees improved chip industry conditions in the second quarter.

However, the most influential tech mover Tuesday was IBM (IBM 98.51 +3.30), which authorized $15 bln in additional funds for stock buybacks. As has been the case over the last couple of weeks, the Dow's performance was again dictated primarily by sizable gains from a couple of large-cap names. A 3.5% surge in the price-weighted index's most expensive component -- IBM -- was the biggest reason behind the Dow coming within 11 points of hitting the psychologically significant 13,000 milestone. IBM's gain accounted for 27 Dow points.

Utilities (+0.6%) turned in the next bst performance while Consumer Staples and Health Care, which are also attractive investments for their defensive characteristics, were the only other areas posting gains. A double dose of good news within Household Appliances (+7.7%) earmarked it as the day's best performing S&P industry group. Whirlpool (WHR 102.85 +12.50) soared 14% to all-time highs after handily topping Wall Street expectations while Snap-on (SNA 56.20 +7.41) turned in an even stronger performance after posting a 77% jump in Q1 profits.

Oil prices erasing most of yesterday's 2.6% rise was also noteworthy. Crude for June delivery fell 2.0% to $64.58/bbl amid reports that oil shipments from Nigeria have been unaffected by post-election violence. However, the failure of transportation stocks to take notice, and subsequent weakness in the Energy sector, removed notable leadership.

The absence of key leadership stalled the market's attempts to turn in a more convincing recovery following yesterday's pullback. Telecom was the day's worst performer, led by a 1.7% decline in AT&T (T 39.08 -0.69). The Dow component said Q1 net income nearly doubled, but shares hitting a five-year high Monday in anticipation of its report prompted a sell-the-news response.

Discretionary was another weak spot as consumer confidence weakening for a third straight month further echoed investors' sentiment. As if things couldn't get any worse for the homebuilders, existing home sales plunged 8.4% in March, the biggest drop in more than 18 years, leaving investors questioning whether the housing market has finally found a bottom. Target (TGT 60.29 -1.14), meanwhile, cast a shadow over the retail sector after warning April same-store sales growth will be "much weaker" than expected. DJ30 +34.54 DJTA -0.6% NASDAQ +0.87 SOX +3.1% SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 1693/1357 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1873/1386/1.53 bln

3:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists going into the close as the Dow looks to get back to its winning ways after its streak of seven straight days of gains was snapped yesterday. Of the Dow's 30 components, 16 are trading higher, but none more so than IBM (IBM 99.06 +3.85), whose 4.1% advance has carried the load all day and currently accounts for 31 Dow points.

Other blue chips posting notable gains include CAT (+1.5%), DD (+1.9%), and HON (+3.5%), all of which have recently reported earnings. Boeing (BA 93.89 +0.25), the only Dow component reporting tomorrow, is well off its intraday highs (+1.4%) but is currently clinging to a small gain with 30 minutes left to go. DJ30 +50.65 NASDAQ +2.01 SP500 +0.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1604/1424/1.91 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1776/1452/1.31 bln

3:00 pm : The indices are holding steady in positive territory going into the final hour of trading. Oil prices recently closing down about 2% near $64.50/bbl and a 1.0% rally in Tech continue to provide a floor of market support.

Unfortunately for the bulls, more evidence that it may take longer than anticipated for the housing correction to subside weighing on consumer confidence is keeping buyers honest and market gains modest in scope. DJ30 +52.34 NASDAQ +2.18 SP500 +0.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1576/1422/1.77 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1763/1439/1.21 bln

2:30 pm : A renewed wave of buying interest within the last 30 minutes now leaves all three major averages at their best levels of the session. Not surprising, the Dow is still pacing the way, led by a 4.6% surge in IBM (IBM 99.54 +4.33). In fact, IBM's 35-point contribution recently helped lift the Dow to within 11 points of hitting the 13,000 milestone.

Gains on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain minimal since the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Four sectors are now trading higher, thanks to turnarounds in Health Care and Staples; but their gains of 0.2% continued to be offset by equivalent losses from Financials and Discretionary. DJ30 +60.08 NASDAQ +4.16 SP500 +1.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1530/1465/1.63 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1822/1385/1.09 bln

2:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as market internals still hold a slightly negative bias. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE hold an 18-to-13 edge over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold a narrower 16-to-13 margin.

A split ratio of down to up volume, though, paints a more accurate picture of today's proceedings. The S&P 500 is still languishing just below the unchanged mark while the Dow and Nasdaq cling to small gains. DJ30 +35.89 NASDAQ +2.13 SP500 -0.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1616/1339/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1869/1342/1.01 bln

1:30 pm : As reflected in the S&P 500 recently slipping back into the red, the market is still finding it difficult to garner enough key sector leadership, outside of Technology, to keep sellers sidelined.

In fact, Utilities (+0.5%) is the only other sector in positive territory while Consumer Staples and Health Care, which are also attractive investments for their defensive characteristics, have been the only other areas even flirting with the flat line. The Dow Jones Utilities Index is currently trading above yesterday's all-time closing high of 523.90. DJ30 +17.23 DJUA +0.4% NASDAQ -2.50 SP500 -2.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1708/1247/1.40 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1924/1281/932 mln

1:00 pm : Oil prices spiking to session lows within the last hour have been a contributor to the market's improved disposition. Crude for June delivery is now down 2.4% near $64.30/bbl amid reports that oil shipments from Nigeria have been unaffected by post-election violence.

However, the failure of transportation stocks to take notice and further deterioration in the Energy sector (-0.8%) removing notable leadership are acting as offsets to oil's diminishing inflationary potential. DJ30 +32.34 DJTA -0.5% NASDAQ +2.02 SP500 -1.03 XOI -0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1626/1301/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1823/1329/850 mln

12:30 pm : Buyers kick off the afternoon session with a renewed sense of enthusiasm. As evidenced by the Nasdaq recently climbing above the flat line, after spending most of the morning in negative territory, the Tech sector (+1.1%) spiking to session highs is spearheading the market's upward momentum. Notable Nasdaq movers include: QCOM (+3.1%), YHOO (+1.1%), AMAT (+1.6%), BRCM (+4.6%), MXIM (+3.2%), ADSK (+2.8%), SNDK (+4.0%), XLNX (+4.1%), NVDA (+2.7%), ALTR (+7.9%), and TLAB (+2.1%). The latter was down nearly 4% earlier but has completely turned the corner amid takeover speculation.

Nasdaq-listed Express Scripts (ESRX 96.97 +8.07) soaring 9% to its best levels ever is providing additional support and is a big reason behind the Health Care sector recently turning positive. DJ30 +44.37 NASDAQ +4.30 SOX +3.1% SP500 +0.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1622/1269/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1938/1200/754 mln

12:00 pm : The indices are mixed midday as investors weigh weak economic data against encouraging developments in tech.

A day after its seven-day winning streak was snapped, the Dow is back on the buying track; but its 23-point gain is largely attributed to a 4.3% surge in IBM (IBM 99.27 +4.06) after it authorized $15 bln in additional funds for stock buybacks. IBM currently accounts for 32 Dow points and, aside from giving a lift to the price-weighted index, it is also lending some tech support.

With Technology (+0.8%) expected to be a substantial contributor to profit growth on the S&P 500 this year, Texas Instruments (TXN 35.04 +2.63) following up its Q1 EPS surprise last night by raising the bar for Q2, citing inventory improvements, has also renewed confidence about the sector's growth prospects. Altera (ALTR 22.91 +1.59) is also soaring after beating analysts' expectations and saying it sees improved chip industry conditions in Q2.

Be that as it may, the absence of key leadership, as tech is one of only two sectors trading higher, remains an overhanging factor. Materials (-0.8%) is turning in the worst performance as a weak Q2 outlook from U.S. Steel (X 102.09 -4.91) diminishes a solid Q1 report from Dow component DuPont (DD 50.00 +0.81).

Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%) is another weak spot today after consumer confidence weakened for a third straight month. Adding insult to injury has been Target (TGT 59.82 -1.61), which warned of "much weaker" than expected April same-store sales results and is casting a shadow over the retail sector.

As if Homebuilding (-1.7%) wasn't in bad enough shape as this year's biggest disappointment (-17.7%), existing home sales plunged 8.4% in March, the biggest drop in more than 18 years, to 6.12 mln (consensus 6.45 mln). That was the lowest level in almost four years, leaving investors questioning whether the housing market has finally found a bottom. DJ30 +23.91 NASDAQ -3.99 SOX +2.6% SP500 -2.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1743/1138/970 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1972/1139/654 mln

11:30 am : Not much has changed since the last update as the Dow and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions. Despite a rally in chip stocks following Texas Instruments' (TXN 35.03 +2.62) encouraging outlook, it's 8% advance is not being directly felt on the tech-heavy Nasdaq since TXN is listed on the NYSE. The same goes for Big Board-listed IBM (IBM 99.23 +4.02), which continues to provide a floor of support primarily for the Dow.

Among the biggest Nasdaq disappointments are Biotech stocks (e.g. AMGN -1.2%, BIIB -1.1%, and GENZ -1.0%), which have had a good run of late. Telecom Equipment stocks are also weak spots following disappointing guidance from Juniper Networks (JNPR 20.34 -0.77) and Tellabs (TLAB 10.12 -0.26).DJ30 +18.16 NASDAQ -7.07 SOX +2.1% SP500 -4.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1750/1052/834 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2009/1051/550 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are bouncing off their recent lows but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. The Dow has turned positive, but 22 of its 30 components are still posting losses.

A 4% surge in IBM (IBM 99.05 +3.84), the price-weighted index's most expensive name, is now accounting for more than 30 Dow points, just barely enough to keep the Dow's head above water, for now. The rally in IBM, coupled with a nearly 8% surge in Texas Instruments (TXN 34.96 +2.55), is helping Technology offer some notable leadership as one of only two sectors trading in positive territory. Tech accounts for almost 15% of the total weighting on the S&P 500. DJ30 +5.05 NASDAQ -9.25 SOX +2.0% SP500 -4.69 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1856/927/662 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2014/996/420 mln

10:30 am : All three indices are now in negative territory after investors sift through some weak economic data. After logging gains over the prior three months, existing home sales plunged 8.4% in March, the biggest drop since Jan. 1989, to 6.12 mln (consensus 6.45 mln). That was the lowest level in almost four years. Median sales prices falling 0.3% year/year, compared to a 2.3% drop in February, also renew fears that the housing market is fragile and subject to another possible down leg.

Separately, consumer confidence weakened for a third straight month, as expected. However, the data don't correlate well with short-term consumer spending trends and there was an upward revision to the previous report. DJ30 -10.51 NASDAQ -12.22 SP500 -6.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1662/1014/450 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1780/1104/260 mln

10:00 am : The major averages are now mixed as split industry leadership dictates this morning's action. Of the seven sectors now trading lower, Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%) paces the way as retail stocks (RLX -1.1%) tumble after Target (TGT 59.84 -1.59) warned of "much weaker" than expected April same-store sales results. General Merchandise (-2.2%) is today's second worst performing S&P industry group.

Among the three economic sectors attracting buyers, Technology (+0.7%) is noticeably providing the bulk of early support as Semiconductors (+2.3%) and Computer Hardware (+1.2%) rank among today's top performers. Industrials ranks second with a 0.2% intraday advance, much of which is being supported by Boeing (BA 94.40 +0.76) confirming a deal with Virgin Atlantic to provide up to 24 Dreamliners. DJ30 +16.98 NASDAQ +0.66 SOX +2.0% SP500 -0.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1164/1309/222 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1304/1356/92 mln

09:40 am : Stocks are bouncing back from yesterday's breather, opening modestly higher as investors rally around another batch of better than expected earnings. Dow components AT&T (T 39.49 -0.30) and DuPont (DD 50.25 +1.06) have been this morning's biggest headliners, providing a floor of support after topping Wall Street expectations. Fellow Dow component IBM (IBM 98.08 +2.87) surging 3.0% after authorizing $15 bln in additional funds for stock buybacks, though, is accounting for all 23 Dow points.

With the market erring on the side of caution yesterday ahead of some key earnings reports after the bell, Texas Instruments (TXN 35.06 +2.65) following up its Q1 EPS surprise by raising the bar for Q2 has renewed confidence about a tech sector that is expected to be a substantial contributor to profit growth on the S&P 500 this year. DJ30 +23.62 NASDAQ +3.13 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Vol 82 mln NYSE Vol 42 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. The stage remains set for stocks to open on an upbeat note as the futures market begins to retrace its earlier highs. Dow component IBM (IBM) authorizing $15 bln in additional funds for its stock buyback program has provided the market with its latest push to the upside.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures indications are off their best levels but still point to a higher open for the cash market. While the perception that corporate profits are good continues to support the market, the fact that economic trends remain worrisome has not been completely overshadowed by earnings season.

In fact, Target (TGT) saying that April same-store sales will be "much weaker" than its forecasted decline of 2-4% has piqued concerns about consumer spending and looks to be an overhanging factor today. Also, since housing remains a drag on the economy, investors are waiting to see if existing home sales (10:00 ET) in March fell after three straight increases.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Positive bias persists in pre-market action as the bulk of earnings reports continue to check in better than anticipated. While the Nasdaq is garnering much of its early momentum after Texas Instruments offered some reassurance about the health of the semiconductor industry, the tech-heavy Composite is getting an added boost from Express Scripts (ESRX), which raised its full-year EPS outlook, and an analyst upgrade on SanDisk (SNDK).

With regard to the blue-chip averages, Dow component Boeing (BA) may open near its all-time highs after reportedly winning a multi-billion dollar deal to sell up to 24 Dreamliners to Virgin Atlantic.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. After taking a breather yesterday following the market's recent run-up, early indications suggest buying efforts will get back on track today. A Q1 earnings surprise from Texas Instruments (TXN) last night, along with reassuring guidance predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction, has helped renew optimism about the tech sector's growth prospects.

AT&T (T) and DuPont (DD) becoming the latest Dow components to top Wall Street expectations are also contributing to the positive disposition.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.