"It there was more accumulation than selling the price would go up."
The reverse is also true "If there was more selling than accumulation the price would go down".
Yet, we have been trading side way for a while(.30-.50 for the last 8 months). I think the KISS(Keep It Simple & S*) is too simple, you probably need to put some charting indicator to work. Ofcourse, good news wouldn't hurt right about now.