AMD held up pretty well today on the selloff. Lots of volume and a reversal, but I'll still be running for the exit if it crosses $15 and say adios to you all for a while. I hope it doesn't come to that as it has been an enjoyable ride from the single digits. If I do exit I'll probably hold the Jan 19 calls as they'll be mostly worthless at that point anyway. At $15, I'll walk away with about a 60% return overall from AMD over a 2 year period. Not spectacular given that AMD has run from $4 to $18, but it is still a profit.
Perhaps I am being too cautious and I should weather the short term downtrend, but I have learned it is always best to take a profit and run instead of chasing a stock downward. I also believe AMD faces some large risks in 04 (Intel's roadmap, 90nm transition), and I don't want to be left holding the bag. If those unknown variables work out to AMD's favor I would look for a reentry (via put writing). If they don't I may switch to Intel as an investment vehicle or just leave this segment alone. It could end up in a draw where both companies are stagnant. That may even be the most likely situation, which would be too bad because there aren't too many stock plays out there like this.
HailMary
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