Replies to post #453 on Find Diamonds, Make Money

[geopic]

2006 overview

Jericho diamond mine:

- completed construction of the Jericho diamond mine and related infrastructure for a total capital cost of $116-million;

- 539,000 tonnes of kimberlite were processed, resulting in production of 296,000 carats for a grade of 0.55 carat per tonne. These diamonds were sold for an average of $93.00 (U.S.) per carat at an average exchange rate of 1.12, resulting in total value of production of $31-million;

- experienced start-up difficulties, which persisted through to year-end. Shorter-than-expected 2006 winter road access resulted in a fuel and explosives shortage, which restricted the mine plan and thereby negatively impacted ore exposure, and carat production;

- the average recovered grade was 76 per cent of the SRK estimated resource and reserve grade of 0.75 cpt for the material mined in 2006. Tahera believes that the estimated actual recovered grade per geological unit was 89 per cent to 95 per cent of the revised modelled grade when applying a predictive block model using vertical grade variations. Refer to the management's discussion and analysis for a discussion of the grade reconciliation analysis;

- based on the above analysis, the grades recovered are considered normal variations from the overall modelled resource grade, and lie within the expected confidence levels for the reserve and resource estimates. Management believes that the life-of-mine expected grade of the Jericho kimberlite resource and reserve material is 0.85 cpt as per the SRK resource and reserve estimates; and

- a 59-carat gemstone, which sold for $450,000 (U.S.), was the most valuable diamond recovered in 2006. The largest diamonds recovered include three low-quality stones in excess of 100 carats each.
* * * * *
While waiting for Don's answer.
Mood of some shareholders bitter. Delays and grades lower and money problems don't help.
Will be looking for his answer too.
g.p.

[december]

Have you guys checked out AFA.V -------- in since .17..........went crazy today

[december]

AFA.V

My first AFA - (rough) calculation example :
Disclaimer : I take no responsibility whatsoever for any errors, bad conclusions, important facts missing etc that might affect my analyses and their readers in any respect, but I always try to keep the facts accurate, as well as the calculations with their usually simple mathematics. Sometimes even the companies analysed deliver false information which could be impossible to detect for me and many other interested parties. In general I trust the corporate information and use it for my analyses. The future can´t be predicted 100 % and the stock market in particular is associated with considerable risks on the company level, but also on branch-, country- and world market level, implying that each person has to take their own full responsibility of the consequences of buying this particular stock.

Do your own due diligence !

Calculated 2007 stock price potential CAD 1.46-2.44 , CAD 0.235 April 20 close

Let us assume that the "potential content to up to 1.6 million carats on about 25% of the mineralized area" is realized in the upper end and that there are 4 times that figure on the whole (100%) mineralized area, with a value of USD 276 for each carat. This accounts only fore the near "surface" and therefore there might be a potential for further "deeper" findings also not included in this calculation.

Assuming there will be a heavy stock dilution to 200 million fully diluted shares in the future as a calcution base, covering further capitalization via PP, the gross value per share would be around CAD 10.0 (assuming USD=1.13 CAD)

I have no precise idea of the total production time, but let say it takes as much as 15 years. Then the present gross value would be reduced to around 4.88 CAD/share in a quick estimation assuming all value in average being 7.5 years away from now and discounted with a yearly 10 % rate of interest.
The profit margin after tax should be somewhere within 30-50 % in my rough estimation, thereby resulting in a net present value of CAD 1.46-2.44 per AFA share right now.

This means that AFA could be a 6 to 10 - "bagger", if such a diamond discovery is confirmed this year.

Even half of that or 3.2 million carat, thus would make AFA a prossible 3-5 "bagger" or there around according to this simple calculation. In this case the overall profit of margin after tax might decrease somewhat, but on the other hand the weighted average production time should decrease thus elevating the present value/carat.

The risks are obviously very high in ADAs case. Anyhow I find that AFA must have an extremely attractive risk/reward-ratio, maybe of a similar magnitude as in the TAM case recently before the TAM stock price tripled in just a few weeks ! (In that case though the value of the property in the ground was known already before the "take-off" making TAM a little bit simple case according to my judgement)