HERE IS MY SUNDAY NEWSLETTER IF YOU READ IT YOU'LL GET THE RIGHT PICTURE OF THE POTENTIAL OF THIS MARKETS NEXT MOVE...
JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED APRIL FOOLS DAY 2007 THE TENACIOUS BULL DOG
Hello out there all my cyber trading friends from around this planet. I got the flu shot in Nov 2006, big deal! This past 5 days has been a battle with germs....they won handily. I took so much medication I looked like a prescription in a bottle myself. What a battle it was. As of this writing I cannot eat, feel nauseous and actually I lost a few pounds so there is one good thing that came out of this bacterial monster fight. I hope I can trade next week I certainly will be in the room since I do feel a bit better. I'm hangin in there folks.
Look I've been on this earth for 65 years gonna be 66 on the 23rd of April. I've been in the markets for 30 years but over the last 10 I have seen and heard and done a lot of things. One thing I did learn was to look for "Tells" in the market signaling to me something underlying this market has a different feel to it then before. Ok let's kick the tires for a bit. We have crude oil heading for $70.00 very soon, Iran is at the forefront again creating angst in the whole world, Ben B clarified the Fed is hawkish on inflation and their bias is toward that end he said so in actual speaking terms last week. The housing debacle is getting worse so it seems, at least that's the perception out there, I think it's bottoming as we speak based on my own situation. And yes there are a myriad of "other" market noise out there weighting heavily on the streets thinking right now.
So I ask everyone of you right now, why are we not crashing and burning by 1000-2000 points on the DJIA and 200-400 points on the NAZ etc etc etc? Why is it NOT happening? I mean folks we are all traders, we hear and read all this constant "negative" news stream every single day ad nausea, it just never stops right? So what the heck is going on huh? Well for one thing the recent quick sell off post Greenspans blurb, or maybe a better word for it would be belch, about a recession later this year making the markets correct world wide had nothing to do with the internals we were simply overbought for too long period.. The economy looks okay right now moving along at a moderate 2.5% GDP with very low interest rates so I do not see the R word as practical for the country. Jobs are still being created, personal spending and income we're up double as of last weeks reports, that does not signal recession to me. So what we have here is "The Tenacious Market" that refuses to quit. Being bullish for me is easy. I was born under that sign, and I live that way all my life good or bad times. The Bull Dog in me and this market makes me even more crazy than I usually am because the bearishness is rampant out there right now, what with investors sentiment at levels where good rallies start from, and CBOE P/C levels using the 21 day moving average is almost 1.17 at historically high levels of pessimism, and really why not?
Everything looks like it's going to explode out there, War with Iran, Oil prices to 100 bucks barrel, rising rates again, heck you name it's lurking out there. But damn if the contrarian in me is saying we are going higher right now and probably starting this week. Look they could have sold off this market sending it reeling into the abyss, but for some reason it refuses to go away right here and now. I'll show you all the charts, I'll explain what I'm seeing on all the index charts, but more importantly it's the bullish percent charts on P&F, the supply and demand, that have me thinking we're going higher fast. There are a vast amount of shorts in the market right now that can and will light this candle like we've never seen before. On top of all this action is the real McCoy part of the year and that's beginning of the quarter mark up and buying time, plus we are heading into what I think is an underestimated earnings season that going to have surprise after surprise as we embark on those reports and with upside guidance. I love this market right now, and will not change one hair on my head until and unless they wipe the smile off my face.
The TELLS in this market are as follows. The NYSE Bullish percent had a recent correction down from 74% in Feb to 62% at the bottom of this move and now folks this indicator, this big boy on the block is just a mere .64% away form a reversal back up. You remember me writing about the fact that the BP"s were not going down any more they were showing traction even though we made price lows on all the charts of the indexes? We'll now they're starting to move higher here with, and this will really get you to sit up and notice, the NDX BP leading the way? Once the laggard of all index BP's it's now the leader. IN fact the SPX BP is only 1.58% away from a reversal back up too. So if I'm right we are in for a surprise rally like you have never seen before. So hang on to your hats everyone! =================================================================================================================
THE Password for this week is aprilfool one word lower case letters... trust me this is no april fool. =================================================================================================================
DJIA---OK I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU 2 CHARTS FIRST THE P&F AND THEN THE DAILY CANDLESTICK CHART TOO. I WROTE LAST WEEK THAT WE RAN INTO THE FIBO RETRACE AT 61.8% ON "ALL" INDEX CHARTS AND EXPECTED A PULLBACK. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif WHAT FOR 12,400 FOR THE REVERSAL BACK UP. HERE'S THE CANDLE CHART SHOWING THAT FIBO RALLY TOP http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ2.gif
NASD---COMP---SAME THING HERE ON P&F. IT HIT R THEN CORRECTED AND NOW HAS REVERSED BACK UP. THERE IS STILL VERY TOUGH R AT 2450, WITH 2460 A NICE BREAKOUT BUY AREA. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ3.gif
NDX DA LEADER OF THE PACK---SO WE RAN RIGHT INTO THE BRL LINE ON P&F THAT'S A DOWNTREND LINE THATS BEARISH, AND ON CANDLES WE TOUCHED THE 61.8% FIBO RETRACE AT THE SAME TIME LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT A PULL BACK FOLKS. SO NOW WE NEED TO REVERSE BACK UP AT 1790 WITH THE BREAKOUT AT 1810. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ4.gif
RUT 2000---ONE STRONG INDEX EVERYONE. HARDLY A MOVE DOWN OFF THAT BRL TOUCH AND NOW ALREADY REVERSED BACK UP. HECK THE P/O(PRICE OBJECTIVE) IS 900. JUST NEED 812 FOR THE B/O BUY SIGNAL http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ5.gif
SPX---WE RALLIED STRAIGHT UP FOR MONTHS ON END FROM 1240 TO 1460 I MEAN TO DA MOON. WE JUST HIT 1370 A PERFECT PULLBACK AREA AND HAVE RALLIED BACK UP SINCE THAT TOUCH. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ7.gif
ES/M7 ---RAN RIGHT INTO THAT BRL LINE ON P&F AND BACKED OFF. NOW IT'S LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO REVERSE BACK UP TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN TO THAT AREA http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ10.gif THE NQ/M7 HAS THE IDENTICAL CHART PATTERN WITH 1795 THE REVERSAL BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
ALL AND ALL WE ARE ENTERING A VERY VOLATILE SPECULATIVE TIME FRAME IN THE MARKETS HOLD TIGHT AND LET'S WATCH ALL THE ACTION AS IT UNFOLDS. ================================================================================================================
THE PASSWORD IS aprilfool one word lower case letters ================================================================================================================
CROX---47.55 THE BTL---46.95 THE SST---HAS R AT 50 BUT MUST TAKE OUT 51.00 TO BEGIN THE EPS RUN MAYBE LATER
SNDK---44.10 THE BTL---43.50 THE SST---THE CEO HARARRI SHOULD JUST SHUT UP ALREADY
RMBS---21.50 THE BTL---20.95 THE SST---THEY COULD BE DELISTED ON MONDAY IF THEY DO NOT REPORT THE 10Q
IMCL---40.90 THE BTL---40.25 THE SST---EVERYDAY THIS STOCK IS MOVING HIGHER AND HIGHER STRONG CHART
BRCM---32.40 THE BTL---31.80 THE SST---VERY UN LOVED NAME IN THE SECTOR BUT VERY OVERDUE FOR A BIG RUN
JSDA---21.85 THE BTL---21.25 THE SST---WELL GUESS WHAT CRAMER PUMPED THIS FOR A LONG TIME FRIDAY NIGHT
NTRI---52.55 THE BTL---51.90 THE SST---VERY NICE COMEBACK OFF THE LOWS OF THE YEAR AND GOING HIGHER..
VLO---64.95 THE BTL---64.30 THE SST---AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AND IS OVERBOUGHT NOW
ATVI---19.20 THE BTL---18.65 THE SST---BROKE OUT LAST WEEK AT 19 AND IS BACKING AND FILLING RIGHT NOW ================================================================================================================
OK SO WE'LL SEE WHAT THE STREET WANTS TO DO EARLY IN APRIL AND HEADING TOWARD EARNINGS SEASON LIKE I SAID HANG ON TO YOUR HATS...
SEE YOU IN THE ROOM
JERRY & INNA(SHE'S SICK AS A DOG) UNREAL...
Jerry Olson The Jog Group LLC jerryo34@verizon.net
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