Replies to post #10713 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[RazorbackFan]

Proposed SPY cash position

http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/riskchart.cgi?tickers=SPY:US&sdate=19990101&edate=20031128&...

Riskgrade Max=183
Riskgrade Min=57
Current Riskgrade=58

Just looking at the current Riskgrade you can see that SPY is at it's lowest Risk level in 5 years. Applying my formula, risky as that might be <smile>(sorry, pardon the pun),

(58-57)/(183-57)*(74-18)+18=18.5 percent

RYTNX

http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/riskchart.cgi?tickers=RYTNX:LIP&sdate=19990101&edate=200311...

Riskgrade Max=366
Riskgrade Min=88
Current Riskgrade=123

(123-88)/(366-88)*52+18=24.5 percent

This one, RYTNX, makes me a little uncomfortable as the fund's data indicates it has only been around since Sep 2000. In other words, its data didn't straddle the high water mark for risk per the Idiot Wave from March 2000 (anyone remember that timeframe?) However, it did get it's maximum Riskgrade from the August-October 2002 timeframe.

Here is the Riskgrade/Price plotted together:

http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/riskprice.cgi?tickers=RYTNX:LIP&sdate=19990101&edate=200311...

and here is SPY's as well

http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/riskprice.cgi?tickers=SPY:US&sdate=19990101&edate=20031128&...

The interesting thing in these two stocks is that the risk peaked in August and Novemeber of 2002, a time when the Idiot wave was showing it's lowest risk ever (Oct 2002). I don't want to disrespect the IW as it has done me right for the last 3 years, I just want to share the data and see if anyone else has any thoughts to enlighten.

Now I must go and join my Hogs and find a way to drown my sorrows. Scotch anyone?