Replies to post #67838 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

Kipp:

Here is the chart you were looking for. However, IMO, it is possibly invalidated since then. The housing index peaked (depending on which index you use) around the summer of 2005 - the same time I started the Bubble/Rubble board. However, the S&P 500 peaked (if it has peaked) in 2007.

The original premise of the chart below was that the S&P would peak 12 months after the housing index peaked, but clearly 18 months is not 12 months.

Now, it could be argued that 18 months is close enough. If you look closely at the chart below, you will see that housing peaked very late in 1998, but the 1 year lag in the S&P didn't peak until mid 1999 (18 months later).



This is a chart showing the PHLX HOUSING SECTOR INDEX (^HGX) in real time with the S&P 500.



Len