S&P 500 Index.....I'm not short yet (patience grasshopper) and am expecting a rally. There are positive divergences on the stochastics and RSI......and a nice rally to work off the oversold condition seems reasonable enough to me.
I think we work on a B wave(upwave) of an Elliot ABC correction....your target of 1325 seems reasonable for the target of the C wave down after this B wave(???) to the upside completes.
JMHO....and I can change my mind as market conditions change.
I'm a bear.......but to be clear, I'm more bearish on the economy in general going forward than bearish the markets. The Fed may fight this "economic prosperity illusion collapse" tooth and nail with more fiat money and that money can find it's way into the market as the general standard of living of America declines and the "economic prosperity illusion" deflates.
We're going to most likely see alot of inflation in everyday items(and just maybe no REASONABLE compensation for holders of US treasury instruments...so "plan" accordingly)....and maybe(but maybe not???) even a bit of inflation into the US stock markets. But relativeley speaking....I'm a bear on US stock markets and real estate.
Not to say that I won't be looking for some incredible bargains in real estate going forward. It will be buyers dictating price as I see it.....it' s about time after all these years, ehhh????
If the market doesn't turn around by Wed, your 1325 could be right. But what if we get a rally next week say on Tues or Wed and we have a strong bounce? What do you think the 70 day blue line would look like then? It would turn up dramatically and probably touch where the market is on Monday or Tuesday.
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