Replies to post #42717 on Biotech Values

[jellybean]

I'm not attacking DNDN and do not feel that I know enough about the story to even comment.

My only point was that improvement in overall survival does not always guarantee approval.

The reporting of mean survival for the Ascent trial has not occurred even to this date because not all events have taken place in the treatment arm. However, the company estimates overall survival as reported below.

Cox regression was prespecified.

Double-blinded randomized study of high-dose calcitriol plus docetaxel compared with placebo plus docetaxel in androgen-independent prostate cancer: a report from the ASCENT Investigators.Beer TM, Ryan CW, Venner PM, Petrylak DP, Chatta GS, Ruether JD, Redfern CH, Fehrenbacher L, Saleh MN, Waterhouse DM, Carducci MA, Vicario D, Dreicer R, Higano CS, Ahmann FR, Chi KN, Henner WD, Arroyo A, Clow FW; ASCENT Investigators.
Division of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR 97239, USA. [e-mail]

PURPOSE: To compare the safety and activity of DN-101, a new high-dose oral formulation of calcitriol designed for cancer therapy, and docetaxel with placebo and docetaxel. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with progressive metastatic androgen-independent prostate cancer and adequate organ function received weekly docetaxel 36 mg/m2 intravenously for 3 weeks of a 4-week cycle combined with either 45 microg DN-101 or placebo taken orally 1 day before docetaxel. The primary end point was prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response within 6 months of enrollment, defined as a 50% reduction confirmed at least 4 weeks later. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty patients were randomly assigned. Baseline characteristics were similar in both arms. Within 6 months, PSA responses were seen in 58% in DN-101 patients and 49% in placebo patients (P = .16). Overall, PSA response rates were 63% (DN-101) and 52% (placebo), P = .07. Patients in the DN-101 group had a hazard ratio for death of 0.67 (P = .04) in a multivariate analysis that included baseline hemoglobin and performance status. Median survival has not been reached for the DN-101 arm and is estimated to be 24.5 months using the hazard ratio, compared with 16.4 months for placebo. Grade 3/4 adverse events occurred in 58% of DN-101 patients and in 70% of placebo-treated patients (P = .07). Most common grade 3/4 toxicities for DN-101 versus placebo were neutropenia (10% v 8%), fatigue (8% v 16%), infection (8% v 13%), and hyperglycemia (6% v 12%). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that DN-101 treatment was associated with improved survival, but this will require confirmation because survival was not a primary end point. The addition of weekly DN-101 did not increase the toxicity of weekly docetaxel.

[AlpineBV_Miller]

Yeah, what walldiver said, too :)