HailMary,
It may be useful to compare the last the situation of last peak (Q4 2000) vs. the next. FASL had JV1, JV2, and started construction of JV3. Demand could not be met, small production was contracted out to Fujitsu's Gresham fab. AMD's half of the revenue was about $458M per quarter. Intel had StrataFlash (2 bits per cell) AMD did not.
Last quarter, total AMD + Fujitsu revenue was $424, AMD has 60% (not 50% of that). JV3 (bigger than JV1 and 2) is completed, Austin fab was was added (even bigger than JV3), the biggest of the 3 fabs. JV3 and Austin are advancing to being fully equipped and the conversion to 110/90 process technology is under way. AMD now has MirrorBit, and transferring production from traditional to Mirrorbit doubles bit capacity. AMD is going from about 10% MirrorBit this summer to almost 100% Mirrorbit.
The bottom line is that AMD has huge capacity compared to 2000, more than double the number of wafers processed / chips produced, ramp of MirrorBit is going to double the bit capacity on top of that.
I expected more of the upside to come from flash near term than from CPUs (although I was a little dissapointed by last Q flash result). FASL / Spansion is going to start hitting on all cylinders, and we may be witnessing the start of it now.
Revenues of $1 Billion per quarter in Q4 2004 would not surprise me ($600M of that for AMD), if things go according to plan. By then we will start hearing about JV4 and converting JV3 to 300mm wafer processing.
Joe
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