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03/01/07 5:23 PM

#2138 RE: walldiver #2133

WallDiver - your optimism even I find surprising:

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=41496&pt=msg&mid=1564847

Would never have put you in the 75% probability boat. Myself I had decided some time ago to do a limited exposure, all-or-nothing, using call options.

Let's say that being exposed on DORB is a large enough bet on the Survival = Gold Standard = FDA Paradigm.

Two interesting survey ideas:

1. Probability of a) Panel and b) FDA thumbs up

2. Investing strategy - Shares & Puts is obvious, but I know someone else who is long shares but short the calls, very conservative.