BB, in my opinion the timing of a buyout will depend on several factors. Most important is the FDA approval of female testosterone. As long as the FDA is on schedule for the review, we should find out by next week.
As I understand it, ANIP has very few shares left to issue to the partner. They are mostly accounted for in current outstanding shares, the senior convertible note offering and the employee stock incentive program. Few shares are left for future business development which points to a buyout without paying off the senior notes, starting in September 1, 2027. Combined with the establishment of a Commercial HQ in Princeton, NJ, it looks like the buyout is the final goal.
A straight buyout offer may be announced any time after the FDA approves the partnered drug. Which would have been given a PDUFA date of September 30, 2024 or earlier, assuming all is in order and on schedule.
If there is no immediate buyout, as a defensive measure, and away to lessen the cost of a future buyout to the buyer, they may want to take an equity stake in ANIP before announcing the buyout. This will allow them to fend off competitive bids as the shareholders decide on approving the acquisition. Acquiring and converting the senior notes may be the most effective and least expensive way to accomplish this. If converting all the notes is a step in the process to making the announcement, look for the share price rising above $96.34 and staying above it for 20 consecutive trading days, as a signal. Once the share are converted the partner becomes a beneficial owner of ANIP and must be reported to the SEC. We should see an announcement upon submission of the beneficial ownership. If this is the case, some announcement(s) will come out driving PPS to $96.34 and above. With the cap call transaction in place, I think PPS will fluctuate between $96.34 and $114.02 in the 20 day ramp up to converting the notes. Track the trading days from this point, then watch for an announcement. Theoretically, the announcement could come out around Q3 earnings release.
Another possible scenario is that the partner converts the shares, the partnership is announced and the partner assumes the vacant BOD seat. This gives them a competitive advantage in a future buyout. I don't think this will happen, as it may prove more costly for the buyout and ANIP has not left themselves any shares for future business development, without seeking shareholder approval.
Bottom line if we don't see a straight buyout announcement, ANIP starts making announcements leading to a steady climb in PPS from October 1st onward.
JMHO
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