Yes, actually I just finished watching that interview today and my thoughts were sort of the same from the comments he made about First Majestic being bigger in the near future and that it would happen through M&A. Keith is at heart an investment banker and making M&A deals is his "bread and butter" when it comes to the mining business.
In that other recent interview, Dan stated quite openly that the company would probably not be developing Springpole on its own and that it would more likely than not require a partner simply because access to capital is very bad right now. He also said it would probably be in the form of a JV with a 50% interest or more. Sure, if the market does turn very bullish then he said it would be totally possible to raise the money and assemble a team to develop the mine on their own. My bet is still that First Majestic would be interested first and foremost in Springpole simply because it will soon be permitted and they already own the silver stream there. Like you said, I mean when you really think about it it's quite obvious this has been the plan all along. Springpole having a clearly defined silver resource would also make it an easy sell with First Majestic shareholders. Before they make the move on FFMG though, they would first need to clear up the operation at Jerritt Canyon to get the "green light" for further acquisitions. Jerritt Canyon should be back in business in 2026 so I would expect a potential deal with FFMG to be made around that time. Sure, they could still announce the JV/partnership much earlier than that.
You could maybe argue about why First Majestic did not buy First Mining outright back in 2021 rather than Jerrit Canyon, but First Mining was still not a viable target back then because Keith has stated very clearly he wants assets to be permitted before they make a move with First Majestic. Jerritt Canyon, despite all of its recent problems, was still a very cheap acquisition if they get that asset back into producing 200k+ gold oz per year. Springpole will by all recent estimates be permitted around Q4 2025 which fits perfectly into the picture with the Jerritt Canyon recovery timeline.
Yes, we have not really seen any insider buying from Keith in months, could maybe be a deal brewing for all we know. James Maxwell is part of the insider register and he did purchase shares in June under a prospectus exemption, but I'm not actually sure what the insider trading rules say about that. Keith not buying for many months would definitely make me wonder if there is something bigger coming up. There has been some periods before where he did not buy for a while but usually he then comes back and buys a lot. And he did buy a lot of shares during H1 after also buying 10m shares in the latest financing round so there is that.
In the interview, he did again bring up the fact that the tech sector has been sucking up massive amounts of investor capital over the years and that we would need a significant correction before that capital would start to seek new avenues for growth. I am definitely in the same camp here.
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