I have done some work on this and I follow pretty close. As you said this is like watching grass grow, and not the spring rainy season.
I would be willing to wait a long time for a positive result and I still hope for that to happen. I am the type of investor that looks for the positive but will never ignore am the negatives again. I bought 2.2M shares last spring. Sold the 200,000 as the share price began to fall and am still holding the 2M shares.
Do I think it could end well? Yes I do. Do I think investors will see money in the next year. No. Let me provide my thoughts.
1) there are several patents and many infringers. The first of many trials could be Aug or Nov. But, my expectation is the defendant will find a way to delay further. Hope I am wrong. If we asked for the delay it’s a red flag. How can VPLM not have their ducks in a row at this point.
2) I know everyone wants a settlement and I think it’s possible but a settlement offer from the defendant will be just his piece and it won’t be massive. If the got $50-$100M from the 2 first defendants it would be a miracle. I think offers will be $25M total. Remember these are only a couple of the cases. Again I hope I am wrong. For this reason I think VPLM will be forced into a trial. If we lose it is over for the stock. Hello .005 for a stock price or less. If we win I expect an award that could be $100M - $250M. Maybe more but I wouldn’t count on it.
If we win there will be an appeal that will last several more years. VPLM gets nothing until the appeal is done. Hopefully it would lead to a settlement that would be decent.
3) insider sales. These could mean nothing. Especially Barbara because Emil get 50% of any settlement no matter how much dilution. So selling shares is not a concern for Emil and Babs. But there are several others selling huge numbers of shares. These people all understand the cases better than us. If good near term results are expected they would not continue to sell. Just my opinion.
4) Dilution. That is the enemy of all shareholders and the dilution is massive. It takes millions per year to run this company’s trials. Shares are increasing fast. When I bought last year the share could was maybe 3B and today it’s over 5B shares. If they draw this out I would expect at least 1B additional shares a year to be issued. 600M will raise $3M at a price of $.005. And Emil will get 370M warrants at $.001 with those share. But as the shares increase new shares will be priced lower. They could sell for .0025 by this time next year. This dilution will lower our potential outcome. As I said Emil will get 40% of the shares no matter what and the rest is split between us. That is reason I don’t want delays. Last year a settlement worth $.50 to shareholder is now worth $.30. When the share count hits 8B authorized it will be worth $.18 to shareholders. And I would expect the share count to be 10B or more before this is done. So a $.50 settlement last year would be worth $.15 to investors.
So the risk of failure remains the same and the reward continues to fall. That is why I hate the delays. That and they continue to issue more shares to execute to sell. For a company like this I believe the directors and execs should be getting $100-$200K a year in salary at the most. Normal board members would probably get $75K. Any payout above that should be tied to awards or settlements. Once the company wins cases they should have warrants or options that are waiting. These options should not be vesting and have the ability to be sold. The board and execs should only be rewarded when shareholders are rewarded.
The other thing that is a red flag is Emil having the preferred shares to maintain total control of everything regarding the company. He can do anything he wants with no opposition. I would prefer that investors have some say in what is going on. Vote on shares issued and make the board justify decisions. That set up is ripe for corruption. Hate that.
I have said before and will again I think the patents are valid and a positive outcome in the courts is likely but these companies are massive and they will all work together to end this. Going against giants is hard. I hope we can be David and slay the Goliath.
So I will hold my 2M shares and continue to watch. It is currently valued around $30,000. It was worth around $200,000 last year. That is what is frustrating. Deerballs can talk about the share price not being at all time lows but it is very close.
I have little experience with patent law but a ton in business and much more in finance. The faster this finishes the better for us and currently I don’t see and end.
One last thing. There is no visibility to what is truly happening. I would like a CC with Emil and the lawyers once or twice a year so investors could get an update on the case progression and Emil’s long term strategy.
1 other item is the longer this takes the longer they are infringing so you would expect damages to be increased. But like everything else I really don’t know what the company has calculated for damages. Can anyone tell us what a positive outcome in the Aug and Nov trials would bring in a damage award? What is the award and what would treble damages bring? If I knew the award would be $250-$509 million and treble damages would be up to $1.5B possible it would make me feel a lot better. But I don’t have any idea what the awards could be.
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