I agree with your split prediction.
They have had power problems lately which would seem to point ti a lower price. However, there is so much untapped potential in Marathon that I believe the price can go a lot higher. Maybe as high as $100/share by year end, depending on what Bitcoin does.
I have sold covered Call options against my MARA position exercisable at $26. I sold them for 23 cents and they are worth a nickle today. They expire EOD tomorrow. So I hope the share price does not go too high in the short term. However, If it goes to $15 I will certainly be tapping my margin borrowing power and picking up a few more shares.
Based on the previous post-halving price history Bitcoin should be trending sideways until about the end of June.
Good Luck to All Longs.