Replies to post #251659 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

VKTX-VK2809 should readout the phase 2B Voyage 52-week data from liver Biopsy in near term for MASH. The main bar Viking's VK2809 will look to surpass will be vs MDGL’s resmetirom/(rezdiffra) since that is the only approved drug on the market for MASH for stages f2 and f3. The key data will be on Fibrosis improvement.

Previously resmetirom showed a MASH resolution of 30% absolute and 20% PBO adjusted and a greater than one stage improvement in Fibrosis with no worsening of MASH of 26% which turned out to be 8% PBO adjusted. (For reference, please see #msg-173733016 for a detailed discussion of VKTX, MDGL and SGMT drugs at 52 weeks.)

At 12 weeks, in this same Voyage phase 2B study, Raymond James commented on VK2809 vs Madrigal resmetirom saying:

“the Viking drug showed a comparative "2-fold reduction in liver fat" with the "fat reduction being >60%." They also commented that VK2809 safety being better than resmetirom saying "Rate of TEAE's leading to study discontinuation was in-line with placebo compared to >2x the PBO discontinuation due to AE rate for 100mg resmetirom". (see #msg-171946767 )

Since VK2809 basically had a “two-fold” improvement liver fat improvement over rezdiffra, it is not unreasonable to expect that it will significantly outperform rezdiffra on Fibrosis/NAS resolution as well.

Hard to say what will happen to VKTX stock when data is released on VK2809. If the data is bad, it shouldn't drop that much and if data is good, it may not move all that much as the MASH market is not in favor these days. MDGL may be more impacted by this data release than VKTX.