Replies to post #59386 on FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)

[Hoghead7]

And if you extrapolate out Few's #s, it's $300M in 2025 and $1B in 2030, which I believe will be revised up by end of 24 or 2025 at the latest. SK is the key for 2025 and needs to happen by end of fiscal year. That would mostly be MCFC which I think has run rate of 40-45MW annually. If they get 100MW, which I expect +/- 20MW, they will need to ramp production at least a little, along with Cap Ex. Margins will be important, not sure what margins will be in restarting plants. I think they run 20-30%? Over all margins running at full capacity after expansion is supposed to be 40-50%. But I'm uncertain how the incentives and tax benefits will effect that. This is going to be growth and increased Cap Ex for such for quite some time. This company should grow at a high rate consistently for the next 10 years. Commercial carbon capture projects won't start rolling for at least 2 years, and they would coincide with PORTHOS going operational. Should have several decent contracts in place by end of 2026, operational by 2027-2028. Due to expanding and increasing Cap Ex, profit may not be attainable until 26 or 27 im thinking. I'm thinking $400-$500M revenue needed for profit during huge growth cycle. $1B for 2030 might be revised to $1.5-$2B by 2026

[Hoghead7]

If we think realistically, 24 might be a challenge for revenue growth given Q1. Averaging $130M in 22+23 I believe. They need to average $40M per Q for the remainder of 24 just to beat 2022+23. That's feasible and I believe they will, but 40% increase YOY in 24 would be over $56M perQ average Q2, Q3, + Q4. That's iffy. S&L is supposed to kick in Q2 or Q3 but not a ton. So I'm a bit confused about any substantial beat for the year. But, extrapolate Few's numbers we get 130% in 2 years and 670% in 7 years. That's just under 52% Annual growth through 25 but under 40% through 2030, which is largely why I believe we gut upward guidance no later than 2026