Replies to post #112550 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

CBBI

Sold my small position in CBBI this morning.

The report wasn't underwhelming. It stunk. Let me tell you why. Deposits are in free fall that is a huge concern for me. Earnings of .54 happened with a big gain on sale of loans in non interest income (Which probably won't happen in q2 to that extent, hence I think that will drop earnings by about .05 or so next quarter). I feel nims will continue to decline. Interest earning asset have been in decline. Loans are in decline. Now they are talking about expaning to the east, what I here even if they are correct, is some startup expenses at first before we see revs. Hence possible higher expenses in the short run. very cheap to tangible book value, but if you think earnings are going to drop from here now possibly by a decent amount over the coming quarters, and your concerned about the huge drop in deposits, drop in loans, drop in interest earnings assets. This doesn't excite me, I've seen plenty of bank reports that excite me more than this. So I decided to take my tiny loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

CUBI

Have to say the way they did this thing with the old CFO first they fired her for cause, and now we are told it is a mutual decision rubbed me the wrong way. Don't like when a story changes. That is a big one for me too overcome.

They have some tough comps going foward.

They added those 10 new teams recently is gonna add 8-10 million expenses a quarter, eventually the revs will make it profitable, but in the short-term that is gonna hit earnings is my understanding. It sounds really positive for helping NIMS and profitability in 2025 and beyond. So get me wrong I think it will be positive in the long run, but might be negative in the short run.

NIMS should improve through the year, so that should help sequentially, but expenses should be higher with the teams.

Based on guidance I see CUBI As cheap with the $1.68 adjusted core in q1, and probably earnings be about $7-7.50 in fy 2024 with significant growth in fy 25. If it wasn't for the CFO thing probably would of brought some at $45 today. On the fence here though, but too be honest I like two banks better, than CUBI that I don't own. Not buying anything today with the huge rally in the markets going into a weekend. But I do still like it, but do admit the CFO thing is really my primary issue with CUBI right now. Minor things are the comps won't be great (specifically in q3), and expenses will be up in the short-term as well. I like CUBI overall, but there are a few things I don't love as well. Hence I'm on the fence with it. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.