thanks for the number crunching Ren. I see no reason to dispute your conclusions. as for "wasting good news," perhaps this was PA's way of saying to the believers that they are getting things done, so load up. I'd like to think that he would like to see true longs get rewarded before just some random greedy flippers that are just trying to make a buck by riding his coattails. those that believe and buy here now w/o the AF's will be the happiest. that's what i would want if it was my show.
Ren, looks like your assumptions are right on the money ! PBLS is having to work 24 hour days to keep up with the demand.
Ren's post:
Some DD/thoughts on this latest PR..
Now I don't know if Industrial Silica is the same as construction aggregate, but that's the numbers I will run with...
An average ton of Industrial Silica (sand, gravel etc) sold in Louisiana in 2004 for $31.09 per ton (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silica/silcamyb04.pdf - page 10). Increasing prices for post-Katrina effects and then being extremely conservative by assuming that Cherokee Environmental gets a large discount for buying bulk, so they might be paying Phoenix $25.00 per ton now. Then a $20M contract would represent 800,000 metric tons of aggregate. 1 cubic yard is approximately equal to 1 metric ton (2200lbs), and each truck holds approx. 25 metric tons (http://www.cclcc.com/pdf/vol10no2.pdf). So, then to ship $20M worth of aggregate, it would take approx. 32,000 truck loads per year (800,000 tons/25 tons per truck), or 88 truck loads per day not counting for any holidays or days off (32,000/365). This type of production would put the Murphy Pit in the top 10% of all pits in the Nation, which is a bit tough to swallow (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silica/silcamyb04.pdf - page 11). Company wide, Texas Industries, Phoenix’s neighbor across the street, is currently at a Gross Profit of 22.8% for Fiscal Year 2006/2007 (http://www.answers.com/main/ntquery?dsid=2541&dekey=1&company_name=Texas+Industries%2C+Inc&a.... – Gross Profit/Net Sales).
Assuming that Phoenix only fulfills $10M of this contract, that would be a Gross Profit of $2.3M for sales of the sand and gravel, or an EPS of .0028 per share (2.3M/815M O.S.). If they have a profit of only $100 per truck load that Bayou/Phoenix ships, that would be an additional $1.6M in gross profit, or an EPS of .0019 per share (16,000 truck loads *$100 proft per load = 1.6M/815M O.S.) A P/E of 10 would put the pps from the earnings generated by this single contract at $.047!
Which goes to show you two things: a Phoenix is extremely undervalued and b, the market doesn’t believe what they say until they ungag the TA and release the audited financials.
Sorry to rain on the parade of some of our newer posters, but IMO, this was just more good news wasted. I agree with CC...how's the audit coming Paul (ie please quit wasting good news to pat our heads until you are ready to release the news that matters most)?!??
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