jdc I Iive in a complicated world where very little is certain. The chance that this is a scam may vary from next to nil to next to 100%. In this case my guess is that the risk that this stock is a scam is higher than 50%. Based on this assessment I have reduced my stake very substantially but I still own shares worth about 14,000 dollars. Why? If this stock is not a scam a fair pps could exceed 10 cents in a year. If this were to happen it would be almost a 15-bagger! Let's for the sake of simplicity assume that there is a 90% risk that this stock is completely worthless and a 10% chance that it will be worth 10 cents in a year. If you had 100 stocks in exactly the same situation one share in each of these stocks would altogether be worth 70 cents now and in a year the worth would be one dollar. 90 stocks would be totally worthless and 10 stocks would be worth 10 cent s each. In other words, on an average you would have a return on your money of more than 40% in a year even if there was a 90% risk that the stocks were scams.
I don't claim that anybody has proved that this stock is a scam. But if you add the circumstantial evidence that this stock is a scam my view is that based on my assessment it looks definitely more likely that this stock is a scam than the opposite. There are a number of red flags that give rise to suspicion that this stock is a scam, but they don't prove that this stock is a scam. We live in a world of uncertainties and should act accordingly. In my view a fairly small percentage of a person's net worth should be invested in a stock that is so risky as I consider this stock to be. But it may be exciting to have a small stake in a stock with very high risk and very high reward. The excitement may make life more worth living for some people.
Are the contracts fake? I don't know. Nobody has proved that they are fake and nobody has proved that they are not. I regard it as more likely that they will not be carried out than that they will. But only time will show if my view is right. I am prepared to lose most of the current value I have in this stock. I guess it will be gradually easier to see if this stock is a scam or not as things happen or don't happen. My guess uncertainty will continue at a high level for several more months.