The entire NASH space is tough for anything to begin with because there is still a question about whether non-invasive testing will be accepted by insurers. (I think it will - eventually). Just about every stock in the NASH space has a very high short ratio as a result of several short sellers who have both conviction and have been largely correct. Any positive news is met with resistance and any negative news punishes the offender.
Then this field is about to change dramatically short term. MDGL has their PDUFA date Mar 14th. MDGL will likely get approved and have a long first mover advantage over anything approved for NASH going forward (approx 3 years?). Then it will become a crowded market as several are potentially poised to enter. The GLP1 based compounds threaten to dominate in F1, F2 NASH at a likely lower competitive price point than the NASH specific compounds. (LLY Tirzepatide? Alt Pemvidutide? VKTX VK2809 ? VKTX 2735? VKTX VK2809/2735 combo?). Then Akro also has to worry about 89Bio's drug pegozafermin which has the same MOA as AKRO's efruxifermin.
You asked:
wonder if this bounces or even holds $30?
I would think its a good bet that it holds 30 today (the data reported really seems good) but I wouldn't have high conviction.
I would be more worried 2 weeks from now if MDGL gets approved with a great label or a year from now if MDGL's Resmetirom gets traction. (I do think MDGL will be successful for a time but I no longer have a position in it because I'm worried about GLP1 based competition. Plus Vikings VK2809 drug is probably even better than MDGL's and we should find out about that 2nd q.) None of this is good for AKRO.
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