Berkshire Hathaway owns about 7% of Kroger’s outstanding shares. Kroger and rival Albertsons have announced merger plans, though regulatory hurdles persist. We think Kroger has carved out a narrow economic moat and is run by a management team that has done an exemplary job of allocating capital. Kroger stock trades 14% below our $53 fair value estimate.
Here’s Morningstar senior analyst Dan Wasiolek’s take on Kroger’s business strategy and outlook:
Of the traditional grocers, we believe Kroger’s scale, partnerships, private-label fare, and data capabilities uniquely position the company to defend its returns against competition that should intensify as Amazon, mass merchandisers, and hard discounters continue to price aggressively to boost volume. We contend that Kroger still benefits from enduring intangible assets and cost advantages, even if its acquisition of Albertsons is derailed by regulators.
Grocers use price as a primary lever to drive traffic, necessitating efficiency and cost leverage to deliver returns. We expect this environment to endure as the industry changes, with an omnichannel experience likely to prevail as customers use a combination of deliver-to-home, click-and-collect, and in-store shopping, particularly since most American consumers drive past grocers on their commutes and home delivery can be inconvenient for buyers with uncertain schedules (although the COVID-19 pandemic likely accelerated delivery adoption in the long term). In physical retail, we anticipate shoppers will choose sellers based on convenience, price, and breadth of assortment, demanding high value as well as a compelling store environment.
Kroger should be able to capitalize on the changing landscape. We maintain that its local market scale allows it to derive cost leverage that fuels competitive pricing and the investments needed to build on its presence in the emerging channels. Its progress should be accelerated by partnerships (with Ocado, Walgreens, Microsoft, and others) that we do not believe are available to smaller rivals because they cannot deliver the same value to counterparts.
Nearly all Kroger's transactions are derived from its loyalty database, providing consumer insights that should play a large role in its digital transformation, fueling promotional efforts and customer engagement while informing assortment and providing salable insights as nongrocery revenue streams. We expect data to play a key role in efforts to drive traffic, efficiency, and conversion that few can match.
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